Post's Picks

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Post's Picks

Post  Admin on Thu Jul 01, 2010 12:19 pm


OK, Now that I have everones e-mail addresses I think it's probably best to start up an online forum or something. Since I'm lazy and kind of feel like making some money, I'll just give my top picks for you guys to analyse. These all have an excellent longer term potential as well and of course they could go lower than my buy price... and higher than my sell price.

Symbol Company NameTerm Buy price Sell target % return One Year Target
SPM Scorpio Mining Medium term 0.65 0.74 13.8%0.9 - 1.0
AVR Avion Gold Short & Long term 0.51 0.59 15.7% 0.9 - 1.1
QEC Questere Energy Medium term 2.9 3.3 13.8% 4.0 - 6.0
CLL Chonacher oil and gas Medium & Long term1.27 1.44 13.4% 1.8 - 2.2

Fred

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July 2010 picks

Post  Fred on Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:22 pm

After I thought about it a little, I decided I need to give you guy's a bit of information as to why I chose these stocks and why I think they are going to do well. First of all, I have bought and sold them all previously and made money on them, and seeing them back in the range where I had previously bought them without any bad news releases tells me that nothing bad has happened to the company's but rather a larger overall market correction. Also... I think its a bit interesting that all of them have reached the buy price immediately after I made my picks. I bought CLL on the day I posted my picks... the reason I picked it over the others that day was because of the RSI.

In a nut shell all companies have proven resources with plans to expand on the production rates and high potential to expand on the resource base...

Scorpio Mining: Low envi impact operations due to unique process of metal extraction. High grade measured and proven resources. Started production in Jan 09 at 600 tpd (tons per day). $0.12 earnings per share in 2009. 2010 first quarter earnings was $0.17 at 1000 tpd. Crusher capacity is 4000 tpd. 2011 throughput rate planned to be 2000 tpd, 2012 throughput planned to be 4000 tpd.

Avion Gold: Multiple low grade deposits confirmed (open pit) plus some higher grade potential for underground. Started production in 2009 at 50,000 oz production for 2009. 2010 forcast 85,000 oz, 200,000 oz by 2012. Proven track record.

Questere: Shale gas, possibly the largest source of un-tapped natural gas reserves. First test well proven results made the stock spike big time... second and third well tests (fracturing the shale) expected in third quarter. Guarunteed to cause similar spikes. Long term potential could be long and drawn out, but will significantly spike this year.

Chonacher: Algar project online and ramping up. Will see full production by third quarter this year. Plans to continue expanding resource base as well as production rates.

Fred
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SPM

Post  Fred on Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:09 am

SPM has had a bit of a set back which explains the current drop in price. A failure in their ball crushing mill... to me represents an excellent buying opportunity. It might go a bit lower in the short term, but I'm definetely a strong buy on it now. It is always something to consider however that these small juniour companies are suseptible to equipment failure and breakdowns because every part of their operation is critical, and they don't often have additional income sources. Part of the nature of the game, and you have to always be prepared to accept that this may happen.

Fred
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Re: Post's Picks

Post  Fred on Sat Sep 18, 2010 5:31 pm

I just wanted to give an update on the status of the picks that I made earlier in the year.

Symbol Max price % gain
SPM 0.9 38%
AVR 0.71 27%
QEC 3.32 14%
CLL 1.52 20%

I sold AVR and SPM.... I was away and couldn't access CLL, so I still hold, and I just bought QEC. I will hold QEC until its big debut which I anticipate this fall. Hoping for the $4-5 range again when the test results of their second shale gas well come out. I will buy back into AVR as soon as I get chance... hopefully below 0.65

Fred
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Re: Post's Picks

Post  Max on Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 am

Very impressive performance to date on these stocks since you picked them.

I am buying a little CLL and QEC on the hopes there will be a seasonal bounce in Natural Gas and on your speculation regarding the drill results. Also, although many have been burned again and again predicting a bottom for Natural Gas, it one day must come. Oversupply during an "energy crisis" is crazy.

Gold is kind of up in the air, I have absolutely no idea what will happen, so I am being cautious with junior gold miners.

Max
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Re: Post's Picks

Post  aaronrwatts on Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:52 pm

So taken a haircut on QEC & CLL.... still in?.... what's the predictions here,,, you out now or quadrupling down? what is valuation of these like now????

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Re: Post's Picks

Post  Max on Fri Dec 03, 2010 12:28 am

Bailed on CLL with a 6% profit in October. Briefly jumped back in, but when I did the full analysis, decided I didn't like it and sold at pretty much break even. Still holding QEC at a big loss. Doubled down recently at $1.36 or so, but still have a pretty small position.

As far as predictions, I think CLL is a disaster waiting to happen, you have my analysis somewhere else. Analysis is also provided for QEC, which looks OK, but nothing spectacular. Drilling results can change things quickly.

Max
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Scorpio Mining (SPM)

Post  Fred on Thu Mar 31, 2011 6:40 pm

I looked around on the forum for a while and noticed we never actually did an analysis on SPM. All this time I figured nobody else was interested in it but me. I had been in and out of it 20 times before ... always for a profit, but I have to admit, when I bought this last time, it was one of the stupidest trades I have ever made. I tried to catch it on a gap-up, and I ended up filling my order on a 52 week high ... er... make that a 2.5 year high... $1.24. But I was determined not to lose a cent of my hard earned cash so I held on for five months... while it dropped back into the $0.90 range, and all the while I was wishing I could free up some more cash to double down. The thing is that I knew it was going to go higher, because a) the price of metals, particularly silver have been skyrocketing, b) because they've been slowly overcomming some debt problems and c) because they've been continually increasing their production.

So, now, I'm faced with the decision of when to sell. I'm up 13.5%, and I expect a gap up tomorrow after their incredible earnings release. The reason why its tough, is because the earnings release is for 2010, particularly Q4. And since then metal prices (silver) have gone up substantially, and will likely continue to do so for at least the next few months. This means that Q1 will be even better. Surely with the recent run, some of this will be factored in, but now that they have proven themselves, they could potentially attract some real interest. This also doesn't take into consideration any of their ongoing drill programs to extend their resources at the main mine and elsewhere.

Guidance anyone?

Fred
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Re: Post's Picks

Post  lukera on Thu Mar 31, 2011 10:56 pm

If your up 13.5% and you expect a gap up in the morning. I would lock in my gain after you see the gap!

Maybe I only have this opinion because of my recent trading habits Smile

I find myself looking for the home run in every trade, only to end up getting burned when I could have taken solid gains!

Glad to hear your doing well!

cheers.
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Re: Post's Picks

Post  Fred on Fri Apr 08, 2011 1:08 pm

I decided since there is a strong likelyhood of continued upward pressure with SPM that I would keep some of my shares. There are too many fundamental improvements to their business and metals prices at the moment for me to sell them all. I sold 41% of my shares for a 31% gain. My first official gains for 2011.

Fred
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