Manulife (MFC)

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Manulife (MFC)

Post  Max on Sat Nov 20, 2010 12:21 pm

RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

This was the follow up to BP. The stock was already at my estimate of book value at approx $13.50, so there was little doubt that it was undervalued. I liked the overall business, and found in the financial statements that most of the losses from the previous quarter that had caused the crash in stock price were related to accounting write downs (non-cash), which I expected to stabilize or recover. Regardless, when a stock is selling below book value, there is a pretty good chance you will get your money back even if the business shuts down.

Here is the trading history.

BuyAug 11/2010200 13.39
BuyAug 11/2010 200 13.16
BuyAug 13/2010 200 12.90
BuyAug 13/2010 200 12.65
BuyAug 13/2010 200 12.35
BuyAug 24/2010 200 11.95
BuyAug 24/2010 200 11.37
SellSep 03/2010 1400 13.30
-
BuySep 08/2010 200 13.06
SellSep 10/2010 200 13.28
-
BuySep 15/2010 200 13.22
BuySep 17/2010 200 12.95
SellSep 20/2010 400 13.31
-
DividendSep 22/2010 NA NA 78
-
BuySep 22/2010 6 12.86
BuySep 22/2010 200 13.14
BuySep 22/2010 200 12.80
BuySep 23/2010 200 12.56
BuyOct 6/2010 200 12.65
BuyOct 7/2010 200 12.45
BuyOct 14/2010 200 12.35
SellNov 4/2010 1206 13.70

In this case, I was a lot more disciplined. I could see that the stock had been a lot lower during the 2008 crash, so I was much more strict about my increments and price targets. I traded the stock a number of times as it rose back up before I accumulated enough shares. Currently the stock is at $15 - $16, so it shows that I sold much too early. Considering that they are still losing money, this is currently a fair price, but I think there may be another opportunity in the future to buy this stock.

Total profit = $2,387.09 (including $78 dividend, commissions, etc). % Gain = 6%. Average # days held = 21 days. Annual % gain = 100%.

Risk = Very low.

Max
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