WND - Western Wind Energy

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WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Fred on Thu Mar 03, 2011 5:43 am

Don't have much time at the moment, but I think WND (Referred to me by Luke) will have a very bright short trem future because of the share buyback (supposed to be this month). And long term future in capacity expansion. Anyone care to look into the current SIB? I think its a no brainer and my estimates for the buy back price are between 2.30 and 3.50... essentially double!

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Max on Thu Mar 03, 2011 10:45 am

At $1.47, the price is at 2.7x book value and they are losing money.

Whatever it is that would make this a good stock, its not in the financials.

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Fred on Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:15 am

WND is another of my top three picks for the short term and has good long term potential as well. Very shortly they will be announcing the completion of a 10.5 Mw wind project that should be coming online now. Over the remainder of the year they will be completing the majority of a 120 Mw project (the remainder to be completed in early 2012), which will add massively to their income generation. Moreover this will also result in roughly a $100 million tax rebate which will shoot the price much higher again. I don't know if they will ever do the share buy back as they said they would, but that could drive the price much higher as well. Recent valuation (including the above developments and cash grant) puts the share price over $6, but I don't see it getting much above $3 for at least a year. Although future developments may be a ways away, they have numerous other projects underway which will add significantly more to their bottom line.

I don't think the clean energy side of it needs to be discussed, but it is well worth considering this from the prospective of the California government which is mandating clean energy and providing garaunteed monetary policy incentives for green power. For me, its a no-brainer. I recently topped on shares and will trade 25% of my shares on peaks and troughs.

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Fred on Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:30 am

Some form of a take-over offer of WND has been tossed around by Algonquin Power and Utilities Corp. (AQN) at $2.50 per share. Although the offer itself has not yet been released, there has been significant drama regarding it all. To be honest I am not surprised about the offer, and I am pleased to be up as much as I am, however I intended on holding this stock beyond whare this offer has been placed. I am sitting on the fence at the moment because a) I would like to see the sp go to where the offer was made; b) I would like to see a better offer; c) I think WND has higher potential as per the $5.06 valuation.

The offer itself is not tabled, but the company is a) getting a large guarunteed revenue generating streem online within a few weeks; b) they will be getting a $108 million rebate from the US government for completing their 120 Mw installation on time (money to be received in Feb-March); c) $300 million in tax credits.

Does anyone want to take a stab at this one? I have to admit, I feel a little ancy being up about $10K and don't want to lose it.

Fred
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wow

Post  aaronrwatts on Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:21 pm

you had 10k in this? wow, nice. had no time to follow anything this small cap, how'd you originally find info on?

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Max on Sun Oct 16, 2011 5:27 pm

You saw my earlier comments on this one, so I would say take the money and run, but obviously I am missing something here given the huge jump.

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Fred on Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:57 pm

WND has roughly 60 million shares with an independant valuation at $5.06 per share, $108 million in rebates coming in a few months, roughly $300 million in tax credits and will become profiable before year end. A buy out at $2.50 is low, but higher than the stock has been valued at.

I see three scenarios:
1) Buy-out at $2.50 goes through and price rises to $2.50 (ish) depending on conditions of tender.
2) Buy-out is upgraded either by AQN or a higher bidder.
3) Buy-out is snubbed out and we wait for value to increase from new capacity (revenue) and $108 million grant.

In scenario 3, the current price will likely drop short term, but still increase long term when numbers roll in. Both the other scenarios result in a higher than current price. I'm going to hold and wait, maybe selling a portion of shares on a good spike.

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Fred on Mon Oct 31, 2011 8:45 pm

Looks like scenario 3 will play out as originally planned. AQN pulled their offer to buy WND and the sp dropped back to the high end of its previous range. As much as I am pissed to see the price drop, I am content that this will make a long ascent as new projects come online to begin generating constant revenue and grant monies are received over the next few quarters.

Maybe this stock will spark some new interest with those on this forum. Food for thought: AQN obviously saw value in this company beyond $2.50 per share or they wouldn't have made that offer to begin with. Would you invest now considering how under valued it would appear?

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Max on Tue Nov 01, 2011 9:17 am

How long do the rebates/tax credits last? One time, or recurring? In general is wind power economical without government tax rebates? If not, I am concerned that they are using artificially inflated income to draw investors to the stock, when profitability is going to drop as soon as the tax incentives are taken away.

The guys making the takeover offer are probably not naive, so again I must be missing something.

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Fred on Tue Nov 01, 2011 4:00 pm

The $100 million tax free grant money is a one time deal. Its just like a mortage whereby the bank will not give you the money up fron to build a house, but instead they will provide you mortage loan payments upon completion of specific milestones. For WND they will recieve payment through an incentive program upon energization. This is also apparently associated with another $80 million for tax credit depreciation, which I don't understand.

The $300 million in tax credits are also a one time deal based on previous expenditures but carry forward until they are used up. This is like capital gains and losses carrying forward on your tax return.

The power purchase agreements are 20 year contracts that are set above market prices in order to make the investment viable and in doing so the governmnet makes a step forward with renewable energy as well as working to eventually bring down the cost of turbine production. They are trying to jump-start the sector, just as they have with solar in order to stimulate research and development and fast track these new technologies to make them competitive with conventional energy sources. These 20 year contracts will on their own pay for the investment and provide a guarunteed profit margin for a number of years. When these contracts expire, new ones will be formed, likely at lower rates, but at that time the capital investment won't be required to install the turbines.

I'd say they guys making/withdrawing the takeover bid (IMHO) left for a number of reasons: The company had recently been valued at double their bid, the CEO recommended against the bid and did everything he could to work against it. WND also proposed an additional aquisition of another 100 MW project. WND management really messed up AQN's chances at a surprise offer by jumping the gun and breaking the news to the public. Interestingly however, none of the details have ever been released.

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Max on Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:56 am

This is what I have been afraid of in the alternative energy sector....
First Solar is grappling with sharply declining prices for solar panels as subsidies for alternative energy dry up around the world. Chairman Michael Ahearn told analysts on Thursday evening that the company had essentially become complacent, overly accustomed to milking government subsidies for renewable energy.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703631204577018040725169170.html?mod=BOL_twm_col

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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Fred on Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:09 pm

After successfully snubbing out an offer to be bought out at $2.50 per share last fall wester wind took a long slow nose dive back to below where I started. I bought a few more shares. Then they got their money from the government... albiet less than they were expecting due to rule changes and being overly optimistic, it was still equivalent to $1.25 per share, which is the range it continued to sit at. Then finally enough share holders got pissed off and complained... particularly a group of dissidents who want to take over the management of the company. Of course the current BOD couldn't just sit and ride this out, so they said screw it... we're selling the company and all its assets for somewhere between the previous offer of $2.50 per share and the valuation of $5.00 per share. Stock price went to $2 ish, where it currently sits. I rode this stock to over $2 three times now, only selling a few each time and now I have much more than I started with. So I feel the dissidents have little to no chance, and the sale process has been set in motion, but after being ridden around all this time, I'm weary. Its like a soap opera now, except its with a lot of my money. I'm not a fan of the games but I sure would like to see a sale mid way. Now they've even proven that they are making money (Max I know you are a bit stand-off-ish on renewable energy, but this is based on negotiated power purchase agreements which are fixed and favorable). So now I sit, weary due to the history, sick of the BS, tired of waiting, and continuing to wait optimistically. Advice?

Fred
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Re: WND - Western Wind Energy

Post  Max on Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:48 pm

So they got their money, all surprises are now uncovered and it sits at $2. What is left to wait for? Need some sort of a catalyst to drive up the valuation now. The uncertainty was probably better for the stock price than where you sit now.

No real advice here, you know my vote.

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