Uranium One

I've been in on UUU for a long time... through the ups and downs... and there have been a lot of large downs! I feel that this company will do very well over the next few years because:
1. the Russians will be completing the megaons to megawatts program in 2013 (Decommissioning wepons for electricity)
2. The race for green energy needs a medium term solution and nuclear provides it. (there is another one using thorium called lightbridge LTBR)
3. Production is going to increase very substantially over the next few years
4. The price of U308 will rise as supply decreases and demand increases

Just wondering if there is some other imput into this stock.

No real good input for you, but once again, good job Fred!

UUU is going up nicely, but I'm wondering about the future of Uranmium reactors. Check out this article on wired

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/02/china-thorium-power/

It might be time to consider Lightbridge. They are a company who has extensive experience with Thorium

I think lightbridge has much potential, but the reality is that it is such a long way off at the moment. It would be negligent to assume that uranium will fade away any time soon. We are experiencing the begining of an intense 5 to 10 year bull market for uranium, which has recently been boosted by the floods in Australia, which shut down a major producer. More reactors are comming on line every few months, and many more under construction. Uranium and natural gas are the only deployable medium term solutions to the worlds energy crisis at the moment and neither will disappear any time soon. I will however follow the thorium developments with a careful eye.

Not a great valuation on Lightbridge at the moment. Not much book value there and they are losing money. Still, that isn't the point is it? The story is there and in time it may take off huge depending on how much you believe in the technology.

I can't believe UUU shot up so much. I totally wrote it off last time I analyzed it.

I took my 60-65% on UUU, and missed out on the additional 100%.... oh well.

One thing about lightbridge that I really like is that they only have 12 million shares.

Are we witnessing panick selling in the uranium sector due to Japan's power plant exploding?

29M shares trading down 27% so far today....seems a little drastic to me,no?

Perhaps it's time to buy in here during all of the fear and panick selling, or will it get worse?

I think the same... I'm amazed at the volume of shares trading... but this could have many long term consequences. These reactors are much larger than the one at Chernobyl, and there are three of them in trouble. A meldown would be catastrophic and would likely result in a chain of additional meltdowns because radiation levels in the area would kill everyone who is trying to keep them under control. Regardless it is sending a wave of criticisms of the nuclear industry from every dicipline... not just environmentalists and activists. This has really put a damper on the long term prospects on the nuclear industry, but the thing that you have to remember is that there is absolutely no substitute in any forseable future to make up the equivalent electricity and there is no affordable alternative at present. I am a strong supporter of clean energy, like wind and solar, but its not going to replace nuclear in our lifetime. The other 500ish reactors around the world are going to continue to operate and the new ones will continue to be put on line. I think UUU will go lower in the coming days and I would wait for lower prices before I bought in. This gives you some wiggle room in case things get worse.

Fred makes a lot of sense, but I think it all depends on whether or not there is a nuclear meltdown.

If there is, you will see nuclear run through the mud in the media, and there will likely be further panic selling before it gets better. Otherwise, the negativity about nuclear power should all blow over relatively quickly.

A little food for thought...

Compare the crisis in the nuclear industry at the moment with the one in the oil industry last year concerning BP and Transocean... I know that UUU is not responsible for the problems in the industry at the moment, but an interesting comparison none the less. How many oil spills have their been in the past 40 years compared to nuclear accidents and which industry do you see as safer? The fact of the matter is that we need them both and will continue to do so for a long time to come as we slowly ween ourselves from our current addictions. Lets face it, the currently operating 443 nuclear reactors around the world supplying ~2500 TWh of electricity are not just going to shut down or be replaced by alternative sources now or in the next decade.

Now that some of the smoke has settled and we look back at what has happened since the earthquake, I can't help but wonder what the next big step will be for the energy industry. I know there is and will continue to be a push towards renewables, but this isn't going to happen overnight, as I've mentioned in my previous posts. UUU has traded approximately 335 million shares since the news of the troubled reactors in Japan, but what has really changed? The company may have experienced some temproary effects with a very short term slow down in demand for uranium and a slightly longer lasting drop in uranium prices, but I can't see it affecting the actual profitability of UUU that much, especially in the medium to long term. 335 million shares is A LOT (approximately 30% of the company) and I would be interested to know who the new shareholders are and how that will affect the dynamics of this stock. As I write this I think many of the old shareholders are probably back in already and some have left for good. We're sitting at around $4, and uranium prices are recovering lost ground pretty quickly, so the potential of this stock is, in my opinion, quite substantial.... to get back to where it was a month ago, is a 50% increase... and even if it takes a year to get there, I think that's a pretty good return. Also, in my opinion, I think that only partially takes into consideration to previously projected growth.

What are peoples thoughts on it now?

I agree, and was waiting for it to stabalize, I think is quite a safe call now, I am going to take a position, just trying to decide how much.

I honestly cannot believe that UUU is dropping this far! I am amazed and will be trying to evaluate an entry point.

Just to add financial perspective, it is still 1.5x book value with negative EPS. As far as valuation goes, I am not suprised to see it down this far, in fact I was more surprised to see it rise as high as it did.